(Picture: Reproduction)

December polls show Argentine opposition without leadership and Kirchnerist shadow still weighs

Following legislative elections, voters find no clear rival to the current government; “nobody” leads intentions while Kicillof and Cristina fight for second place.

Argentine politics ends the year with a curious scenario. After the legislative elections in October, which strengthened the current government, the opposition faces a deep identity crisis.

Seven national polls conducted in December and analyzed by the newspaper Clarín show that, for a large part of the population, there is currently no figure capable of leading the counterpoint to the libertarian administration. The political “vacuum” is evident, leaving the field open and fragmented between old acquaintances and new promises that failed to take off.

The great leader of the opposition is “nobody”

Since the beginning of the new administration, one question has been repeatedly asked of Argentines: “Who do you consider the main leader of the opposition?” The most common answer is not a name, but a denial.

About 40% of respondents answer “Nobody” or “Don’t know/No answer.” This data reveals that a huge portion of society, even those who do not support the government, does not feel represented by the political figures currently available.

The internal dispute: Kicillof versus Cristina

Among voters who can point to a name, the dispute is restricted to two Peronist figures, who alternate prominent positions:

• Axel Kicillof: The governor of the province of Buenos Aires appears ahead in some surveys, with about 23,5% of mentions. He had a peak in popularity in September but has lost strength in recent months.

• Cristina Kirchner: The former president remains relevant with 19,8%, but faces a growth ceiling due to corruption scandals and accumulated rejection.

Where are the other traditional politicians?

The survey is harsh on figures who, until recently, dominated the headlines. Former president Mauricio Macri, for example, appears in a distant third place among opponents, with only 4,5% of mentions.

Other well-known names, such as Sergio Massa, or left-wing leaders like Nicolás del Caño, fail to reach significant digits. More alarming for traditional parties is that moderate politicians, such as Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Martín Lousteau, are not even cited in the main lists, evidencing a severe loss of relevance.

The blame for the crisis still falls on the past

Another fundamental data point to understand the political moment is the perception of blame regarding the economic situation. The consultancy Pulso Research asked 2,000 people who is primarily responsible for the current crisis.

The result shows that the “cursed inheritance” is still a valid argument for the electorate:

• 44.6% blame the previous administration (Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner).

• 40.5% blame the current administration.

This indicates that, even after two years of government, the population still associates economic difficulties with the mistakes of the past administration.

The clear path for the current government

This disorganization of the opposition directly benefits President Javier Milei. Without a consolidated rival and with the memory of the previous government still fresh and negative in the minds of voters, the current administration gains time and space to operate, even in the face of economic challenges.

As long as the opposition does not resolve its leadership crisis and present a new project that goes beyond the usual names, the Argentine political scenario is likely to remain favorable to the incumbent government.

Resumo em Português:

Sete pesquisas de dezembro revelam que a oposição argentina enfrenta um vácuo de liderança. A resposta mais comum sobre quem lidera a oposição é “ninguém” (40%), seguida por Axel Kicillof e Cristina Kirchner, que disputam o protagonismo peronista. Além disso, a maioria dos argentinos (44,6%) ainda culpa o governo anterior pela crise econômica, beneficiando a gestão atual de Javier Milei.

Resumen en Español:

Siete encuestas de diciembre revelan que la oposición argentina enfrenta un vacío de liderazgo. La respuesta más común sobre quién lidera la oposición es “nadie” (40%), seguida por Axel Kicillof y Cristina Kirchner, que disputan el protagonismo peronista. Además, la mayoría de los argentinos (44,6%) todavía culpa al gobierno anterior por la crisis económica, beneficiando a la gestión actual de Javier Milei.