(Picture: Disclosure)
Appreciated Exchange Rate and Economic Reactivation Boost Foreign Purchases
In February, Argentina recorded a trade surplus of US$ 227 million, a significantly lower figure than the US$ 790 million expected by the market, following a substantial 42% increase in imports. Exports reached US$ 6.092 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, mainly driven by a 12.0% increase in exported quantities, while prices registered a 1.6% drop.
Imports, on the other hand, totaled US$ 5.864 billion in February, with a year-on-year increase of 42.3%. This growth was primarily driven by a 55.4% increase in imported quantities, while prices showed an 8.5% decrease.
Trade Balance Shows Smaller Surplus Compared to Previous Year
The trade balance for February recorded a surplus of US$ 227 million. Compared to the same month in 2024, the balance showed a decrease of US$ 1.182 million.
Regarding exports, all sectors registered increases. The highlight was Industrial Origin Manufactures (MOI), which reached US$ 1.615 billion, representing a 15.4% rise.
Imports Register Significant Increases Across Various Sectors
All import sectors showed strong increases in quantities, led by Passenger Motor Vehicles (93.2%), as well as Capital Goods (83.6%), Consumer Goods (80.8%), Parts and Accessories for Capital Goods (58.8%), Fuels and Lubricants (38.3%), and, to a lesser extent, Intermediate Goods (17.1%).
The consultancy Abeceb points out that, when analyzing exports by sector, a robust performance is observed, with increases in the exported values of all items. The largest increase in exported quantities occurred in the Fuels and Energy sector, which has been driving exports, showing a 12.6% increase in annual value and an 18.6% increase in quantities.
Surplus Below Market Expectations
According to Abeceb, the US$ 227 million surplus in February was significantly below the market expectation of US$ 790 million, according to the Central Bank’s Market Expectation Survey (REM).
“The reduced trade surplus is explained by the sharp increase in imported values, which more than quadruples the growth of exports. This is especially noticeable as non-seasonally adjusted imports reached their highest value since February 2023 and one of the highest in the last eight years,” the consultancy adds.
Concerns About Reserves in a Scenario of Economic Opening
Abeceb also notes that “with this import dynamic in a context of exchange rate appreciation and economic opening, the trade surplus is decreasing considerably at a time when, without an IMF agreement yet signed, more reserves than ever are needed.”
Based on the results of the first two months, Abeceb estimates that the favorable balance, which was US$ 18.899 billion in 2024, could be less than five digits this year, hovering around US$ 9 billion. The consultancy attributes this scenario to the “faster-than-expected rebound in economic activity, as well as the appreciated exchange rate (despite the real depreciation at the margin due to the dynamics of the dollar and the Brazilian real), and the elimination of trade barriers and the PAIS tax, which are allowing the rapid increase in imports after two years of decline.”
Future Prospects: Increase in Imports and Potential Energy Surplus
The consultancy ACM, for its part, projects that economic recovery will drive an increase in imports in 2025. “Based on the elasticity of imports with respect to the product, the demand for imports could increase between US$ 7 billion and US$ 10 billion,” it indicates.
“However, a consolidation of the energy balance and higher exported volumes in the agricultural sector, although offset by lower prices, could sustain a growing surplus scenario in the coming year,” they conclude.
Resumo em Português:
A Argentina registrou um superávit comercial de US$ 227 milhões em fevereiro, abaixo das expectativas do mercado. As exportações cresceram 10,1%, impulsionadas pelo aumento nas quantidades, enquanto as importações dispararam 42,3%, também devido ao aumento nas quantidades. O superávit foi menor em comparação com fevereiro de 2024. A alta nas importações foi influenciada pelo câmbio valorizado, reativação econômica e remoção de barreiras comerciais. Espera-se uma redução significativa no superávit comercial em 2025.
Resumen en Español:
Argentina registró un superávit comercial de US$ 227 millones en febrero, por debajo de las expectativas del mercado. Las exportaciones crecieron un 10,1%, impulsadas por el aumento en las cantidades, mientras que las importaciones se dispararon un 42,3%, también debido al aumento en las cantidades. El superávit fue menor en comparación con febrero de 2024. El alza en las importaciones fue influenciada por el tipo de cambio apreciado, la reactivación económica y la eliminación de barreras comerciales. Se espera una reducción significativa en el superávit comercial en 2025.
